Brussels fears crisis if nations vote No
13.04.2005, 20:19
Fears are mounting in Brussels of a full-scale European Union crisis in June as officials begin discussing contingency plans in the event of a No vote on the new EU constitution in France or the Netherlands.
Jacques Chirac, French president, will on Thursday night launch his personal campaign to reverse opinion polls, which suggest his country could effectively kill the constitutional treaty in a referendum on May 29.
Even if France votes Yes, senior EU officials are increasingly worried that the Netherlands another founding member of the club could also reject the treaty in its referendum on June 1.
Jean-Claude Juncker, the veteran prime minister of Luxembourg and holder of the rotating EU presidency, is said by officials to be on standby to try to contain a political crisis if either country votes No.
"We may want to issue a political statement quickly to try to limit the damage," said one senior EU official. "Then we would try to pick up the pieces at the EU summit on June 16-17."
He said there were no formal contingency plans in place and there were still hopes that both France and the Netherlands would endorse the treaty, which aims to modernise an enlarged union of 25.
The sense of apprehension has been heightened by the fact that the medium-term handling of the crisis would fall to Britain, which takes over the union's presidency on July 1.
Tony Blair, British prime minister, hopes to be re-elected for a third term by then. He has a fractious personal relationship with the French president. Mr Chirac will today attempt to turn the tide in France's increasingly acrimonious debate over the European constitution when he meets 80 young voters in a live televised debate. The French president, who has so far let his government lead the debate, is hoping to give a boost to the Yes campaign, which has struggled in the face of widening opposition to the constitution.
But Mr Chirac's television appearance is far from certain to win over sceptical voters. The most disaffected are those from the left, who fear the constitution threatens employment in France and its social regime.
While the French debate on the constitution is intense, in the Netherlands it is virtually invisible. There is little sign that campaigning in support of the treaty has started in earnest among the Dutch. The treaty appears to be of marginal interest to the media. There have been no national debates and there are few, if any, posters or billboards.
Yes campaigners have warned that this "information vacuum" may lead to a No vote in the Netherlands on June 1.